Stocks have further to decline. Or bear market to accelerate.

The decline in stock markets has found some support but it is not the end of the decline. We expect support to break fairly soon and that markets will decline into early April. The February lows are a rough target for now.

Bonds are weakening in advance of the Fed statement and forward guidance. We think that guidance will be towards tighter monetary policy as the Fed is convinced the economy is on a stable and strong footing. Inflation is above target so there is no reason for the Fed to hang back. A rate hike this week is well discounted so its the future guidance that matters.

TR